Peter,
Keen and every other economist who is not also a student of accounting in general and aware of the subset of cost accounting and its economic implications are missing the most underlying cause of inflation, namely the fact that as a flow businesses create more costs than they simultaneously create in individual incomes….with which to liquidate such costs. As every enterprise is bound by the cost accounting convention that ALL COSTS MUST GO INTO PRICE…the economy, even completely unregulated and left entirely to itself IS AND REMAINS INHERENTLY COST INFLATIONARY. Keen has only recently discovered the importance of accounting, but is still splashing around on the surface of debits and credits attempting to sort out stock/flow inconsistencies, and even with impassioned calls by myself to go to the 3 and 4 dimensional level (in other words the real time non-abstract level) of the subset of double entry bookkeeping known as cost accounting….doesn’t seem interested in doing so. So much for his thoroughgoing iconoclasm. Seems like orthodoxy hides even in the most unorthodox economist’s minds. And conservative/libertarian economists and pundits? They apparently are so conditioned to BELIEVE in general equilibrium, which to his credit Keen has thoroughgoingly debunked, that you couldn’t get them to actually look at the above realities even if you put a gun to their head let alone try to get them to do so with mere words.
Tony Bennett: “As every enterprise is bound by the cost accounting convention that ALL COSTS MUST GO INTO PRICE…the economy, even completely unregulated and left entirely to itself IS AND REMAINS INHERENTLY COST INFLATIONARY.”
Say what?
Have you ever heard of write offs?
Costs get written off (the balance sheet) all the time by going concerns … or else bankruptcy.
Me: @Tony Bennett:
“Have you ever heard of write offs?
Costs get written off (the balance sheet) all the time by going concerns … or else bankruptcy.”
These write offs are basically “one off”, individual/anecdotal and do not come close to approaching total excess macro-economic costs ever increasing throughout the entire productive process from resource extraction on through to retail sale.
But you are correct that unless businesses are lucky/cut throat enough to garner sufficient revenues to be profitable….despite the inherent scarcity of total individual incomes in ratio to total costs….they WILL go bankrupt. This basic and powerful economic reality and metric is the primary reason why a large percentage of business start ups go bankrupt within a few years.
peterblogdanovich: Who said:
Economics is the science of confusing stocks with flows?
Keen’s main contribution is his approach to modeling. It is rigorous, and it is dynamic. As you note it is not currently as detailed as some might like. All models are toy economies to some extent. The impressive thing Keen shows is even trivial three agent models (banks, firms, and labor/consumers) rigorously dynamically modeled exhibit many behaviors we have seen. The correlation between unemployment and the acceleration in debt is .94 here and .92 in Japan over the trailing decades. That’s a pretty good agreement between model and data especially when Krugman insists it is zero. More elaborate models of firms, banks, and consumers are quite possible and doubtless will reveal more. I’m a big fan of his for these reasons. Go Steve!
Me: @peterblogdanovich
Oh I give Keen his due. I have complimented his iconoclasm and even suggested that it was deserving of a Nobel prize, but I still have to speak truth to power regarding his missing of the dynamic nature and flow of excess costs in ratio to incomes continually and simultaneously produced.
dtj: chdr said “regarding his missing of the dynamic nature and flow of excess costs in ratio to incomes continually and simultaneously produced”
A product or service won’t be produced unless it can be sold for a profit. Thus, selling price = “total costs to produce” plus “markup” to obtain profit. Keen does talk about profit coming from “markup”, but it is unclear to me how he accounts for this in his models. I think chdr is alluding to this dilemma?
When looking from the point of view of one firm, in order for that firm’s profit to be realized, value must be generated somewhere else in the economy in order to pay for it. Or newly generated debt could pay for it. The system has to have an inflationary/expansionary bias in order for things to balance out.
Me: Yes, profits and savings are also a part of “the Gap” between costs/prices and individual incomes. Douglas said that 90 years ago. Now I hasten to add that this does not mean profits and savings themselves are evil or something like a reactionary socialist might claim, but the fact remains that the economy left entirely to its own normal operations…IS STILL SYSTEMICALLY/INHERENTLY COST INFLATIONARY. And apparently Keen misses the point that for continuous growth via continuous borrowing….DOES NOT RESOLVE THIS INHERENT CONDITION BECAUSE IT INCLUDES ADDITIONAL COSTS. Now interest is not the basic problem either which is the “scarlet woman” of monetary cranks, it is merely an additional cost. There are all manner of additional costs and diminutions from the circular flow that create “the Gap”, but the original and most basic economic cause is probably depreciation costs which are obviously additional to any financial costs, and as a modern economy becomes more and more capital intensive and less and less labor intensive…..the gap between costs/prices and individual incomes becomes wider and wider.